NineShift Exclusive: How People Will Travel

Another NineShift prediction: here's how people will travel between 2040-2100 in the United States.
The fundamental economic driver is that 80% of people will travel 80% of the time by light rail and trains, with the primary factor being work.

By Number of Rides Per Year

Light Rail & Trains, 70%
Cars (half Uber, half owned cars) 20%
Bicycle, walking, segway, bus and other 5%
Plane travel  1-2%
Margin of Error  5%
Total:  101%

By Number of Miles Per Year
Light Rail & Trains,  70%
Cars, 10%
Bicycle etc 5%
Plane travel, 10%
Margin of error, 5%
Total: 100%

I will premiere these predictions at a train conference in Eau Claire, Wisconsin on April 26.

Comments

[David Lubic]

Setbacks.

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/news/local-news/2018/05/05/state-abandons-rail-study-funding/

Interestingly, this one points out the generational difference.

https://www.outandaboutnashville.com/story/plan-bravo/52139#.WvHd6Ygvzct

And some people who see hope.

http://cornellsun.com/2018/04/25/lam-no-an-amtrak-station-in-ithaca-is-not-an-absurd-idea/

[David Lubic]

I know you're confident about this, but I would like to know how or why.

The reason I ask is that while there is increasing advocacy for rail service, there is also increasing opposition.

Part of that is people who want to take out railroads for trails.

These two commentaries, from opposite ends of the country, with their critical commentary, help to illustrate the point. This is but the most microscopic of samples, but what's here is pretty typical.

And I was called a Communist for suggesting something other than the "freedom" of driving.

Again, where is your confidence coming from?

https://www.adirondackalmanack.com/2018/04/rail-trail-commentary-adirondack-railroads.html

http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/opinion/20180406/letter-commuters-get-educated-on-countys-rail-debate

[David Lubic]

"I'm either too young or too old,
Born too late and too early at 62. . ."