Nine Shift

Or Is the Internet More Like the Automobile?

Is the conflict over the Internet today's version of World War I, or is it more akin to the disruption of the automobile?  What do you think. 

Last week we discussed the similarities with World War I.  But maybe it is more akin to the disruption of the automobile. 

The Internet has invaded one's personal privacy.  The automobile destroyed the extended family.

The Internet has created a bunch of bad guys who hack into your finances.  The auto created bank robbers who could race away at 80mph and avoid being caught.

The Internet requires new laws. The auto required new laws, jaywalking, speed limits, driver's licenses. 

Both the Internet and the auto require a whole new infrastructure, with new societal norms, new companies, a "whole new infrastructure"  (highways and Internet connections). They both change how we live. What do you think?   WWIII, the auto, both or somewhere in between? Or......

 

 

 

Can Rent Control Prevent Gentrification?

The most intriguing question at last week's faculty retreat came from the custodian, Carolyn, who was working that day.  My brilliant colleague Julie Coates and I did a faculty retreat for Chicago State University on the south side of Chicago.  Carolyn rents a place in the black neighborhood bordering Chicago State, which primarily serves the African American community.   Listening to the faculty discussion, she asked Julie at the break about what to do about her neighborhood becoming gentrified.

It's an age old problem, gentrification, and it happens every time more prosperous people (generally white in the past) want to live somewhere else (generally where lower income minorities live).  

We tore up farms for suburbs. We tore up inner city communities for highways.  We moved working class people to be next to factories.  We are now moving working class people out to the suburbs. 

But maybe Rent Control, which has not caught on except in a few cities, will help keep lower income communities in tact.  It not, Carolyn and her neighbors will be forced to move out to the suburbs, a long way from their college and workplace, Chicago State University. 

 

Are We Currently in World War III ?

Our young friend Hazel says the war over the Internet is World War III.  What do you think? 

The Internet is indeed the technological equivalent of the tanks and gas and guns of WWI, which also had been invented just a few years before.  

There are countries trying to dominate or conquer or disrupt or ruin other countries today, just like in WWI.

There is a fierce competition, especially between China and Europe/USA, for domination as the next World's superpower.

There is an old aging out-of-step world superpower trying to hold on to the last century - - Great Britain 100 years ago, USA today. 

True, there are fewer deaths today, although the civilian casualties in the Mideast are horrendous.  

 

 

 

Republicans and Democrats Starting to Come Together

John Boehner, the former speaker of the House and a leading Republican, this month endorsed legalizing marijuana, at least for medical purposes.  That's a huge story.

Because it shows the start of Republicans and Democrats coming together over the basic outlines of the 21st century.  And legalizing marijuana is one of those bi-partisan fundamentals that Gen Y demands for this century.  And this week Bernie Sanders spoke openly of a national law legalizing marijuana.  We can discuss why marijuana will be legalized, but basically it's gonna happen.

More Evidence Schools Cause School Shooters

New York City mandated a decline in suspensions in its public schools. The result? A 21% increase in suspensions, according to this NYT story.

And one of those kids killed another student with a knife and badly injured another student. Yes, we need to abandon all-but-hunting-rifles.
But, as this tale tells, if schools continue to abuse our children with suspensions and expulsions, we will continue to see school violence.

No, teachers were not pushing back. And NYC will continue to try to lower suspensions. My guess on the increase: teachers unconsciously taking out their disagreement with Trump on boys.

 

Education Revolution Coming

Between now and 2030 you will see a revolution in education. 

-Public support, and tax money, will return to both K-12 schools and higher education.
-College education will be recognized as the most important thing for economic prosperity, both for an individual and for communities and society.
-Student debt will be erased.
-And yes, the bias against boys in school and college will disappear, probably only with enforcement of the Title IX law.  

These are very tough times for education, even as the importance of education is paramount.  Brighter days lie ahead.

Yes, We Predicted the Decline of Suburbs

"Nobody imagined it, really."   Writes Aaron Wiener this week in the Washington Post about the decline in suburbs, and the rise in urban population. 

Well, yes, we not only imagined it, we published it in 2003 in the NineShift book and it was covered by BBC radio worldwide. 

I was surprised he wrote that.  I thought, as a futurist, that he would have written that EVERYBODY had predicted it, not that no one had predicted it.

Wiener is a senior editor at Mother Jones.  Nice little story there about our latest prediction:  Mother Jones marched on the summer White House on behalf of boys and school in 1906.  NineShift is about to get the word out about boys and school in 2018. Stay tuned.  

Photo: NASA photo of a black hole in outer space.

 

NineShift Exclusive: How People Will Travel

Another NineShift prediction: here's how people will travel between 2040-2100 in the United States.
The fundamental economic driver is that 80% of people will travel 80% of the time by light rail and trains, with the primary factor being work.

By Number of Rides Per Year

Light Rail & Trains, 70%
Cars (half Uber, half owned cars) 20%
Bicycle, walking, segway, bus and other 5%
Plane travel  1-2%
Margin of Error  5%
Total:  101%

By Number of Miles Per Year
Light Rail & Trains,  70%
Cars, 10%
Bicycle etc 5%
Plane travel, 10%
Margin of error, 5%
Total: 100%

I will premiere these predictions at a train conference in Eau Claire, Wisconsin on April 26.

Mental Health Another Dumb Excuse on Reducing Gun Deaths

Mental health is a common, irrelevant, and dumb excuse for trying to reduce gun deaths. 

I have heard that about 20% of mass shooters have mental health problems, exactly the same percentage as for the total population.

My wife has noted that if "mental health issues" were the criteria for guns, both she and I would not be able to get a gun (not that either of us wants one), as we both take a medication for anxiety, like millions of other people. 

But here's the problem with that criterion: in addition to not pinpointing whatsoever a violent person from a non-violent person, using that criterion would exclude me, my wife, and millions of others from career advancement, elected office, getting on an airplane (?), applying for a loan, etc.  That label would effectively shut down the productive lives of millions of people. 

I'm too old to care or be affected, but you might be young enough to care. 

Photo: painting in the snow, what a young friend did up at our cabin last weekend.  Yes, there's still two feet of snow on the ground. Caution: she probably would be labeled the same as me and Julie.

Tell Someone About Interesting Things in Your Life

Tell someone, anyone, about interesting things that have happened in your life. 

I read the NY Times obituaries and usually wish I had met that woman or man before they died, so they could tell me about such-and-so.  

So when Julie posted her story of Billy Graham coming to her house and sitting at the kitchen table, a dear good friend who is also an amazing woman told Julie about Martin Luther King coming over to HER house when she was young, dropping off his kids for babysitting before 'going to work' with a march or civil rights work.   

We have been friends with her for 30 years, wonderful to hear that story.  And now please tell your story to someone - - anyone.  

Happy Easter!