Nine Shift

Another Good Thing About the NFL

Another good thing about the NFL and football is that fans have a 'club,' a feeling of belonging.

So I went into the Twin Cities in Minnesota from my home in Wisconsin for a few hours. Minnesota is only 10 miles away. But crossing the state line is like crossing a country border, sports-wise. It wasn't that Minnesota folks cheer for Minnesota teams.  It was that I was wearing a Wisconsin coat, and a couple of times another Wisconsin fan would shout out "Go Badgers" as I passed by. There would be smiles, hello's.  And then the feeling, as I told one man who said Go Badgers, that I was in foreign territory. 

The fascinating thing for me was the people who called out Go Badgers.  Because 10 miles a few minutes away, back home in Wisconsin, no one does that. Because we are all Wisconsin fans. But out of your territory, there is a feeling of belonging, of some sense of normality in the foreign land, when other hails from the same team fan base. You find a kindred soul. You are not alone, or lost or wrong. You have a friend, even for a second.  But the feeling lasts.  And it's another positive thing the NFL and football does for us. 

Kids in the Wisconsin Badger marching band, famous for their 5th quarter playing after the game, entertain the crowd during a Packer game at Lambeau Field this fall. 

 

Hillary, Not Young Women, Behind the Times

Debbie Wasserman Schultz is absolutely wrong about Gen Y women.

Even if she was right, she and Hillary are not approaching Gen Y women correctly.

I like Rep Schultz. I think she is an excellent leader for the Democrats.  But she is wrong, when asked by a NYT reporter, "Do you notice a difference between young women and women our age in their excitement about Hillary Clinton? Is there a generational divide? DWS replies, Here’s what I see: a complacency among the generation of young women whose entire lives have been lived after Roe v. Wade was decided."

She says the kids are behind the times, when it is really Sen. Clinton who is last century.  This century would be, like, responding to the needs of Gen Y women.  P.S. In politics, as in business, "needs" are "perceived needs,"  not what you think I should think or do.

My brilliant co-author, like Gen Y women, prefers trains. Train station in Slovenia.

 

Huffington Post Gets the Internet Wrong!

Tanaka and the Huffington Post get the Internet - - totally wrong. Here's what they say:

4."We are finally figuring out what the Internet is."  WRONG

This is historically laughable.  If this article is still in the cloud in 20 years people will laugh. 

This is like saying that in 1916 "we are finally figuring out what the automobile is."   In 1916 11 states still did not have a state highway agency. There were not many miles of paved roads. There was, at the start of the year, no federal funding of roads. 

And of course no drive-ins, motels, Interstates, drive-in movies, car radio, weekends other than a short train ride away, commuting via car, two-car garages, women driving, women driving alone, women driving alone and smoking.  It wasn't even clear electric cars would lose out to gasoline driven cars.  Trains were at their height.  

No, like 100 years ago, our understanding of the Internet - - the World Wide Web really - - is evolving.  Yes, some things have been tried and failed.  No, we haven't figured out holograms, the Internet of things, robots, drones or the driverless car.  We can't even get high speed Internet access where I live.  If you say you have figured out the Internet, you really haven't.  

Huffington Post Gets Education Wrong

The Huffington Post and Gustavo Tanaka are just guessing when they cite this as a reason the world is changing:

8."Un-schooling trends." WRONG

This is my world. Tanaka and the Huff Post are clueless on this one.  First, un-schooling is a trend.  But what, precisely, are the un-schooling "trends"  (plural) going on?  

It is true that when the education system becomes broke (it has) and needs to be transformed for the new economic era and way of life (it does indeed need such transformation - - and is being transformed), there is experimentation. Un-schooling is one. 

Look, I was privileged to listen to Ivan Illich lecture (I was too brilliant for me, I couldn't figure it all out).  But I did read, understand, and even teach a class on his 1971 classic book Deschooling Society.  And I read, understood and taught School is Dead, by Everett Reimer, the other classic on "un-schooling."  

But education is not dead.  Formal education is just being transformed, not eliminated.  The four year college or university degree is worth more than ever - - it is the ONLY entrance into a good job.   To argue we will hire engineers, biologists, chemists and doctors without degrees is - well, folly.  We used to, but no longer. 

I could go on. I have gone on, in our latest book.  But to summarize: Tanaka and the Huffington Post are way out of their league on this one.

 

Huffington Post Gets Spirituality Wrong

Was Tanaka born yesterday?  No, like most other people he only thinks three weeks back, and three weeks forward.  

7. The awakening of spirituality. WRONG

Tanaka writes, "How many friends do you have who practice yoga? What about meditation? Now think back, 10 years ago. How many people did you know by then who practiced these activities?"

Back in the 1960s just about everyone was into yoga and meditation.  They were some of the hottest courses ever in adult education in the last century.  After the Beatles discovered Ravi Shanker, everyone did.  The Dali Lama has been popular for ages.  

Not to mention all the religious revivals in the last 100 years. I was part of the ecumenical movement. I studied Bonhoeffer, Tillich, Barth.  I still support the "liberation theology" of the 1960s-1970s. Yes, when there is a huge economic upheaval, people look to the heavens for understanding.  When one's way of life is threatened, one appeals to God.  Read the novels of 100 years ago - - PLEASE. And when one, and one's beliefs, are trying to overthrow the existing social order, one questions and one engages in spiritual analysis.  As one, as we, should.  But new?  No, not new. 

Huffington Post Gets the 21st Century Wrong

After giving the Huffington Post and Gustavo Tanaka credit for getting 4 out of 8 reasons why the world is changing, we now turn to the other half, what they got wrong.  Why they get only 50%, an F (F= Flunking).

2."The entrepreneurship model is also changing."  WRONG
   Entrepreneurship - - a person or several people taking a risk, being innovative, doing something new - - is entrepreneurship. That's the definition.  
   Today, like 100 years ago:
*Only 1 out of 2,000 guys who tried to invent something (e.g. cars, search engines) made it big.
*Only 5% of successful entrepreneurs could/can be a success with a second invention/business. 
*Only a few entrepreneurs can become good managers and lead a business into maturity. Etc.

   Now, granted, the external environment changes (because of entrepreneurs of the past), situations are different in each age, society becomes ever more complex, BUT  Gutenberg, Edison, and Jobs did not follow different "models." They all broke the existing model.

 

Huff Post Flunks Own "Why The World is Changing" Test

The Huffington Post and its blogger Gustavo Tanaka get 4 of their 8 reasons why the world is changing correct.

That's 50%, an 'F.'  Thanks to NineShifter Cem Erdem for sending me this link to Tanaka's article.

This week we address all 8 reasons.  Here's the 4 he gets right.

1."No one can stand the employment model any longer."  YES
Just like 100 years ago, today's employment model is obsolete.  It was created for the factory system of the Industrial Age, which doesn't exist in the U.S. and Canada any longer. 

3."The rise of collaboration." YES
Collaboration is totally new, and necessary for the 21st century and the Knowledge Society economy.
In the last century, we had 'teamwork' but it meant something different.  We basically worked alone, studied alone. That's no longer productive or profitable- - collaboration is both more productive and more profitable.

5."The fall of exaggerated consumerism."  YES for Gen Y, NO for Boomers.
But Boomers don't really count moving forward.  Gen Y, Gen Z, etc. do count. Yes, when you earn your living from an intangible product (that's what knowledge workers do) you internalize that value and it is reflected in your buying as well.
To be sure, we understand "consumerism" in this context as buying stuff - tangibles.  Buying intangibles- - downloading music, for example, is and will be rampant. So intangible consumerism will continue unabated.

6."Healthy and organic living."  YES, for awhile at least.
 When there is a transition to a new economy and way of life, there is a re-evaluation of our basic functions, like eating. So 100 years ago there was a healthy pushback on 'scientific' foods such as cereal, Velveeta, and a focus on meat. Today Gen Y is pushing back on GMO foods and finally chemicals in our food.  

Next up: where the Huff Post and Tanaka fail - - miserably.

Fox News Gets One Thing Right!

Trish Regan of Fox Business Network, in airing tonight's GOP debate, got "it" right.
"it" meaning the whole Tea Party movement and societal battle playing out in the presidential race.

She said that a large sector of Republican voters, and debate watchers, want things to go back to the way they were.

And by that, she said, the time when you could graduate with a high school degree and get a good job.

She's absolutely correct.  That's what older white men have lost, want, and what will never be again.  

2016 All-New Prediction #1: Four Year College Graduate Shortage So Bad it is Addressed in 2017

Like 100 years ago, our nation's (and every other post-industrial nation's) biggest problem today is having an educated workforce.

For this century, an educated workforce means having 50% of our workforce with a four year college degree. 

100 years ago, it meant 50% of the workforce with a high school degree.  So society made high school compulsory.  States, thanks to Chicago social worker Julia Johnson and Congress, also made laws to make it possible for schools to keep boys in school. Most states outlawed hitting students, the main reason why boys were dropping out of high school.

Today, business is now desperate for college educated workers and screaming for more. The unemployment rate for college graduates has hit rock bottom, just 2.5%  It is unclear whether it can go any lower.  But what society can do is keep and graduate the 14 million really smart adults and young adults who test at the same level, or above, as college graduates. 

By 2017 the shortage of college educated workers will be so bad that society finally addresses it.  It's our #1 Prediction.  We have a new book explaining it all and the solution.

Evergreens in the forest up north over our holiday break last week.
 

2016 All-New Prediction #2: Building Boom Coming in 2020s

As I posted on The New York Times web site last week, I owe Downton Abbey for the origin of this All-New prediction.

As suburbs decline and dense neighborhoods grow, especially around light rail and train stations, there will be a huge building boom in the next ten years.  The biggest single building type will be the mixed use building of retail shops on the first floor, offices on the second floor, and apartments and condo's on the rest of the floors.  

The building boom won't just happen in big cities.  It will happen in any sized community that has a train station.  So even smaller communities, especially those between two bigger cities connected by a train, will see big population growth and the building boom. 

There was a building boom in the 1920s, and for the same reason.  People were leaving farms, and the farmhouses became empty. They moved to be near the factories where they worked, and the white collar workers moved to suburbs.  Thanks Downton Abbey!