Nine Shift

What's Wrong With Trains

One of my favorite lines from a 1930s movie is the young woman telling Clark Gable, do you know what's wrong with you? Absolutely nothing. 

So you will hear, for the rest of the century, all about what's wrong with trains. And every problem, a problem to be sure, just reinforces the importance of trains in this century. 

Economically for the United States, perhaps the biggest problem is the crowded worn out tunnel from New Jersey into New York City that everyone wants fixed, and no one wants to fund the fixing. But again, thirty years ago no one cared about fixing the tunnel because trains were not important then. Trains are important now. 

 

Another Huge Week for Trains

This was another big week for trains in the 21st century.  

Here's just the stories I saw:

1.First "Train Heroes" are Americans.
Yes, Americans ride trains.  Europe actually has trains.  So very ironic, and positive, that maybe the first Train Heroes of this century are Americans.  

2.Gen Y woman lives on trains.
A German 23 year old college student gave up her $450 a month apartment to pay $380 a month for unlimited train rides.  No, this is not a movement.  It is a symbol, a symbol of change.

3.Continued angst over New York tunnels.
The problems of success.  No one would be talking about this if few people rode trains. 

4.New city to emerge in Minneapolis.
A whole new city is being planned next to the new light rail line in Minneapolis.

5.Durham, North Carolina plans light rail.
The Research Triangle, the hub of North Carolina's economy, moving forward with light rail plans.
Thanks to NineShifter Perry Harker for this story. 

That was just this past week.  

Economic Indicators All Wrong

The Economic Indicators, those measures used to judge the economy and published regularly, are all wrong.

They are quite right for the last century of the Industrial Age but totally meaningless - - and more importantly misleading - - for the 21st century. 

This happened 100 years ago as well.  All the leading indicators were farm related - - corn, oats, beets. No, not taken together, they were Separate economic indicators.  And like today, not helpful for the emerging Industrial Age of the 20th Century.  

Here's the Economic Indicators The New York Times publishes:

1.Industrial Production.  
We are now in an intangible economy, where the critical 'goods' are all intangible. Industrial production, like farming, is still part of the economy, but no way is it an economic indicator. "Oh no, oats is down. Whatever shall we do?" 

2.Consumer Confidence.
Maybe this is still important.  It was not an economic measure 100 years ago.  I'll say wait-and-see on this one.

3.Inventory-Sales Ratio
There is NO inventory in an intangible economy!  

4.Leading Indicators
Well, if the indicators used for the Leading Indicators are wrong, guess the reliability of the Leading Indicators.

5.New Home Sales
Apartment sales were up 28% last month, single family home sales down 0.9%.  Gen Y is moving into apts and condo's. Does this indicator measure that?  

We have to have new Economic Indicators for the intangible economy of the 21st century to have any idea how well we are doing.  Right now the economists are flying blind.

Another NFL Issue: Cheerleaders

I was watching my team's first exhibition game of the season on TV, and there was something missing: cheerleaders.  

The TV cameras simply ignored them, and for good reason. This doesn't rank with the other big issues that the NFL, presiding over the decline of American football, faces today.  But as a futurist I need to say you will read about it sometime.

NFL cheerleaders do not help the NFL, which is why the TV cameras are not showing many images of them.  

Women watch the NFL but not cheerleaders. Women, by and large, are not interested in the cheerleaders, many are put off by them. Unlike college cheerleaders, with which no one seems to have a problem, here are the top three reasons why women spectators might not like the NFL cheerleaders:

1.NFL cheerleaders, unlike college cheerleaders, are dressed to be alluring.

2.NFL cheerleading squads, unlike college cheerleaders, have no male cheerleaders.

3.NFL cheerleaders, unlike college cheerleaders, do little gymnastics.

Six NFL teams do not have cheerleaders. But what the NFL will do about the rest is just a sticky dilemma that has no happy ending, PR or otherwise, moving down the road.  It's not a big issue, but it IS another issue for the NFL, trying to keep this last century sport our nation's top sport, with soccer (futbol) on its heels.

The Boys of Reddit and Why Men Talk Mean About Women Online

Feel free to object, but please provide some rationale or data, on my take on the boys of Reddit and why men talk mean about women online. 

I am going to suggest that the male participants on Reddit are demographically more tilted towards smart males with just a high school degree.  

I am going to echo the data that indicates that about 14 - 17 million males age 45 and under with just a high school degree test at, or higher than, college graduates.

I am going to suggest these males have some antipathy towards teachers, most of whom were female (especially in K-6) and all of whom are third wave feminists, who:
A.Told them they were 'bad'
B.Humiliated them in school
C.Denied them decent careers

I am going to suggest some, and at some level, mean online talk about women is about being bitter about third wave feminists ruining their economic livelihood by denying them college and a good career.

If I am wrong, tell me why. 

Next Group to Oppose Gen Y: Liberals

The next group to oppose the needs of Gen Y: liberals.  The Tea Party has opposed the needs of Gen Y from the beginning. But coming soon will be a challenge to academic liberals and educators and the liberal educational belief system.

A survey of Gen Y found that the biggest thing Gen Y wants to change is education.  We're now seeing signs that the challenge to our outmoded obsolete education system is starting to gel around the needs of Gen Y.  

First issue:  testing.  Liberal educators hate testing.  Teachers are generally not comfortable with accountability.  Gen Y needs testing to find out if a person has learned something.  Subjective teacher judgments are so wrong and so inaccurate that employers now have to reject GPAs as totally false evidence of learning.  

Latest NineShift Testimonials

From two people who have recently read the book or heard the speech:

"It was the perfect book and came at the perfect time."  Connor Nelson, a 22 year old-ish recent college graduate.

"Thank you for an excellent presentation!"   Gary Goyke, former Wisconsin State Senator and active leader in state politics, after hearing NineShift presentation last month.

 

'Fair Testing' Advocates for Unfair Testing

This rather stunned me.  The organization Fair Testing is advocating for unfair testing.

Specifically, Fair Testing wants tests to be rigged so girls score higher than boys.  

Boys and girls currently score about the same on tests overall.  Because males and females are equal in intelligence. Because tests measure learning, and boys learn the same as girls. 

But Fair Testing wants tests to be gender biased in favor of girls. Why? Because girls get better grades than boys.  Even though the grading has nothing to do with learning.  Boys learn just as much as girls.

It's like 1984, twisting reality to reflect their ideological belief system. Fair Testing joining the war against boys, which is wreaking havoc on our society economically, and destroying the careers of millions of boys. 

Separately, but apparently not unrelated to the above, Paul Schaeffer of Fair Testing requested a copy of our new book "Smart Boys, Bad Grades" in return for his comments and critique on it.  He then refused to reply to our requests for his comments, even though he agreed to comment. 

When Traffic Jams Were Good

In 1939 LIFE magazine did a story on Detroit, almost exulting in its traffic jams. 

Gen Yer Connor Nelson was in Detroit last month and sent this picture and note: "I found this card very humorous while seeing the state of Detroit today.  I witnessed a dedicated community working to restore Detroit while there. But something definitely did stop Detroit and it was the Internet. I read your book while in Detroit. I bought this card. The description on the back sounds like an excerpt from Nine Shift." 

In 1939 LIFE wrote, "Detroit is a restive, anxious, dynamic place, so tightly geared to the auto industry that it has become the biggest purely industrial metropolis in the country. At 5:15 pm you can almost hop across the street on the tops of the cars frozen in the traffic tie-up."  

Traffic in 1939 meant progress.

Clock Ticking on the Race Against Race

The clock win run out in 2020 on the effort of old white people to keep minorities from having their fair share of influence and affluence.

As my brilliant co-author says, old white people fear the "impending loss of white privilege," in her words.

By 2020 the demographics of society will have changed so much, in two big ways. First, white people will be in a minority, or not enough of a majority, to prevent black and Latino people from achieving positions of influence.  Second, white Gen Y people not only prefer diversity, they demand it.  

As Gary Goyke, a former state senator in Wisconsin reminded me last month, Gen Y demands integrated neighborhoods, and are creating them.

Old white people, best represented by the Tea Party, simply have only four years left to try and hold back the 21st century, a century in which Gen Y embraces diversity, and minorities are no longer a minority.