Nine Shift

Our Economic Future: We Need a Word

For the U.S. to really move forward in, and with, the new economy, we need a word. 

Just one word, we need to agree on using that word.  We currently have no word that both accurately describes, and is in common usage, for "the new economy."  Here are the candidates:

*Innovation sector, used by Enrico Moretti in his new book
*Knowledge sector, created by Peter Drucker in 1959
*Intangible economy, used by a number of economists
*'Private Services,'   used by U.S. Commerce Department
*IT sector, used by the IT sector  :)    

Ironically, the term 'knowledge worker' (society, sector) was invented by Drucker, an American, but is used extensively in Europe but not in the U.S. 

100 years ago my great grandfather, who started a company that by mid-century was a Fortune 500 company, was called an "industrialist."  Everyone knew what that new occupation was.  He and many other creator of industrial companies were called industrialists.

Today we have a commonly understood term, “manufacturing,” to describe what is dying and being replaced, but not a term for what is replacing it economically.  So it is very difficult to promote, advocate, and encourage what we need without a term to describe it.

 

Our Economic Future: What Enrico Moretti's Book Gets Wrong

Forbes called it the best book of the year, and I agree. But in an email to Professor Moretti, I still suggested three minor differences. He replied with a neutral but still polite and friendly "good food for thought."

I am citing Moretti's book in every presentation I make now. So he has new important evidence that business and education leaders must know. 

1.Trains and light rail are integral.
  Moretti misses the whole train thing. And transportation is always center-stage in economic change. Not only do innovation cities have and continue to build more light rail and trains; but transportation access has been so important historically that one could see even poor Merced, Cal. bouncing back with a high speed rail station there (I don’t know Merced’s other qualities, but I do know in Wisconsin Eau Claire will triple in size if it has a high speed train stop as SNCF would like).

2.Gender discrimination against males.
 Mathematically, there’s no way for U.S. to get to 50% college educated population while continuing to discriminate against males in education. Substituting mediocre females for smart males won’t do in the workplace.  And while Gates, Jobs, Zuckerberg, Shawn Fanning, Robert Stephens etc and etc  did not need a college degree (neither did Henry Ford, Edison, Wright Brothers) that’s a short historical window that is closing and  males have to be able to have access to the education standard society requires.

3.Dispersion of economic prosperity to other cities.
  While Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, got all the PR in the last century, in Wisconsin the “Dairy State” actually had great prosperity and wealth in Janesville, Racine, Kenosha, my hometown of Fond du Lac, with auto factories and other manufacturing.  I agree the concentration of prosperity in innovative cities is happening now, but history would suggest that other cities, especially those with high speed rail, are going to benefit in the coming decades. 

Exclusive NineShift photo. This is a Russian style sleigh. The runners are part of the sleigh, good for deep snow.

2014 Prediction: Tech and Legal Hurdles Mount

An easy prediction for 2014: that technology and legal hurdles mount as challenges to new 21st century features.  But here's another prediction: those tech and legal hurdles will fall, overwhelmed by the necessity of these 21st century activities.

An example of both.  When we moved to River Falls, Wisconsin, ten years ago we needed a city permit to email our business colleagues. No longer.  At the same time, it was illegal to have someone else in our house email a business colleague. Absolutely illegal, subject to a fine of hundreds of dollars per day. No longer, now we can have One person working in our house.

Now take procedures, forms, legalities, zoning, insurance, and other hurdles for just about every new 21st century activity, from renting your car for a day to getting federal loans for outcomes based education.  Those hurdles will mount in 2014 because life is changing fast now. And those hurdles will fall, because nothing can stop the 21st century now.

Like snow shoeing this time of year in the woods, it's a challenge to create a new path. But the new path gets created.

 

2014 Prediction: The End of the Auto Age

This is the last year of the Auto Age.  For our FREE four page pdf report on The End of the Auto Age, just click here.

Julie and Bill celebrate The End of the Auto Age.

2014: Our Leaders Are Clueless

Our public policy leaders and our institutional leaders are clueless about the infrastructure changes we need for the 21st century.

Public policy consultant Tony Dutzik of the Frontier Group was talking with me and he noted that public policy officials just do not understand the public policy implications of Gen Y driving less. Locally, my public policy officials are clueless about the massive exodus of Gen Y from our county. And after meeting with college and university presidents all over Canada and the United States, I know they have no idea how to transform their institutions for the new century.

So like the Viennese 100 years ago before the collapse of the Hapsburg Empire, we all just dance on.

Your fearless correspondent dancing in a Vienna museum this past year.

New 2020 Prediction: The Big Switch

Sometime shortly after 2020 we will see "The Big Switch."  For passenger trains, the government will own the land and track.  And the trains will be run by private for-profit companies.

Right now the government runs the trains, and private companies (freight railroads) own almost all the track. But this runs counter to the history of our country where:

-Rivers are owned by society, barges run by the private sector.
-Highways are owned by society, while cars, buses and trucks are run by the private sector.
-Airports are owned by society, planes run by the private sector.

Here's why The Big Switch will happen. There's no profit in owning railroad tracks. There's huge profit in running trains.  By 2020 trains will be recognized as the primary transportation for this century; and for-profit companies (already chomping at the bit to run trains) will easily convince the public that they can run faster on-time trains than the government/Amtrak can. 

NineShift photo of Emeryville, Cal, Amtrak station tracks before boarding the train.

 

The First Ringtone

They had ringtones 100 years ago. They were called sleigh bells.

We've all just ended a month of hearing songs about sleigh bells ringing. But they were more than festive. In fact, they were so vital they were required by law for every horse pulling a sleigh.

Because after dark, the horse and sleigh were so silent there could be many accidents. So bells alerted other sleighs and snow shoers and walkers about the oncoming sleigh in the night.  And because most people had distinctive bells just for them, you could also tell exactly who was calling in the night.

Photo by NineShift staff photographer Doyle Darvis.  This kind of sleigh is called a cutter, because it has just one seat.  We knew about cutters, but we learned about sleigh bells at a Northwoods Cutter and Sleigh Rally in Ashland, Wisconsin, yesterday.

Thanks for Ten Years of NineShift !

"NineShift was the best one yet - - getting the big picture of the changes in our society and relating them to our own industry is priceless." 
-Cheryl Green-Pozner, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA.  From the newest NineShift Keynote for 2014 in San Francisco recently.

My brilliant co-author Julie Coates and I thank you for all your support of NineShift over the last ten years.

Best unsolicited book testimonial on Amazon for NineShift:

5.0 out of 5 stars "A friend brought me a copy of this. I simply had to have my own copy," July 28, 2013, Elizabeth Campbell.  "Even though this is a few years old in a world that his changing almost with the speed of light, this will capture your attention. I've lent it to so many friends. It makes for wonderful conversation!"

Photo: Cheryl Green-Pozner

 

 

Will We Have Another Depression?

NineShifter Deborah Hoffman of Culpepper, Virginia, asks whether we will have "a major economic change" in the third decade.

She writes, "I have a BIG question for you. Do you think we will have a major Economic change in third decade? 1906 or maybe 1907 was a major Collapse as was 2007 or 8."

Deborah is right about the 100 year parallel. Our prediction of the Great Recession, printed in The New York Times Jan 6, 2006, proved correct.

Here's the deal: Like 100 years ago, we did not fix the banking system for the 21st century, setting us up for another big economic shock.  And Gordon Brown, former Chancellor of the Exchequer (Treasury) and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, wrote last month we will have another big economic downturn because we have not fixed the banking system. Good title, "Stumbling Towards the Next Crash."

Photo from my grandfather's house looking towards the lake. His summer lake home was built in 1933, during the Depression.

STEM Industry Invested in the War Against Boys

Here's why the war against boys will get worse in 2014.

1.Immigration Act
The U.S. Congress wants to allow college educated boys from other countries to come work in the U.S. and Congress will incentivize a massive program by colleges and universities to make that happen. This will hurt American males (and taxpayers) as well as delay recognition of the solution.

2.The STEM industry is heavily invested in pushing girls into STEM
The STEM industry is huge, with over 400 organizations and a billion dollars a year spent on pushing girls into STEM.  The effort has not worked of course.  But when failing and desperate, one tries harder and tries harder to cover up the failing. 

NineShifter Heather Smart sent us a link to one such effort, the utterly senseless and wrong theory that mothers aren't feminist enough to encourage their daughters to go into STEM. Ms. Smart added knowingly, "Here's one more for your collection." 

Photo: NineShift at the LERN conference with amazing tap dancer Edward Jackson, who told the San Francisco Chronicle how demotivating it was for his teachers to tell him he wasn't smart enough. Jackson is one of ten million smart males without a college degree.