Nine Shift

When Republicans Will Support Trains - - and Why

Republicans will support trains beginning in 2020. And they will propose replacing Amtrak with for-profit passenger train companies.

NineShifter and blog contributor D.P. Lubic asks, "At some point, if this is the generational shift we think is taking place, and if things aren’t sandbagged with car subsidies as they have been for generations, there will be a time when it will be possible to run a rail passenger services at all levels–local streetcar, interurban, regional rail, and HSR–at a true profit. The question becomes, when will this be so?"

 Our Answer.
 D.P.,

   As futurists who base our predictions based on 100 years ago (so far, so good on predictions), we have been reading several books on trains and specifically the issue of government-owned passenger rail versus privately-owned passenger rail.

   Here's our prediction. In 2020, trains will be so obviously beneficial to business that Republicans will suddenly say that "the time is now right" to support trains.

   However, the Republicans will propose the big switch: that Amtrak be abolished and replaced by for-profit passenger train companies; and that the government own the track. Unclear whether freight companies would retain ownership of their own track, but certainly all new track (and there will be lots) will be owned by the government.

   This is the traditional transportation model: the government pays for the stuff that isn't profitable (roads, airports) and the for-profit sector takes over the stuff that IS profitable - - planes, cars, and soon - - trains.

Photo: highway cloverleaf in Milwaukee as seen from the train.

 

End of the Boomer Era Begins

2012 is the first year of the End of the Boomer Era.

Here's more evidence: CarTalk is out of gas.  Tom and Ray are retiring.

It is very symbolic.  Not just big-time Boomer stars.  But at the same time cars go into decline.

As one reviewer put it, "It's nostalgic, in a way - when most of us really think about cars these days, we think about fuel emissions, decaying infrastructure, dependence on foreign oil and other such matters. Click and Clack are aware of those issues, but their attitude toward the automobile is very 20th Century, very old-school."

Yep, very old school.

Only Old People Oppose Trains

Nine Shifter D.P. Lubic turned me on to the real reason why there is opposition to high speed rail in California right now.

The LA Times did a poll and story on the opposition.

But as D.P. points out on the California High Speed Rail blog, two things:

1.Old people oppose rail in the poll, but young people favor rail.
2.Old people vote in far greater percentages than their numbers, while young people do not vote.

Here's the question: when today's boomers are in their 80s, and either experiencing a bloodbath on the highways as their driving ability plummets, OR not even able or allowed to drive at all, will these boomers regret not supporting passenger rail that would both extend their lifespan and increase the quality of their life?  Old people feel free to respond!

 

Need New Economic Sector Indicators

Our current economic sector indicators, especially the "service sector," needs major revision.

100 years ago, one could see indicators for cotton, barley, oats, and a zillion other agricultural products, while manufacturing was in one category.  Today we have about 25 manufacturing sub-sectors, created by the Bureau of Labor. See the list here.

And then there's the "service sector," which includes the kid working the ice cream machine at McDonald's, and a ton of professionals and knowledge workers in various occupational sectors.

The reason, of course, is that without the proper categories, the eoncomy and economic output cannot be correctly measured.

So here's a first stab:
-Self employed entrepreneurs
-Finance
-Health
-Training and Education
-Data analysis and data mining
-Computer and IT services (services, not hardware)
-Agricultural services and consulting
-Manufacturing services and consulting
-Government and government services and consulting

OK, now YOU add to my list. 

Photo, LERN co-founder and lead consultant Greg Marsello, right, doing consulting with Al Lewis of Chicago, IL. 

 

Summer 2012 Just Like Summer 1912

Julie and Bill (pictured playing croquet) on vacation. Is it just me, or does summer 2012 seem just like summer 1912 ?

Gen Y Salary Expectations

We have said Gen Y knowledge workers will average $100,000 a year, double what their parents made.

Here's some evidence to support that.  The median family income in the U.S. is around $53,000.

An eHeathInsurance.com Kelton survey of 526 college students/recent graduates and 550 parents, reported in the June 7, 2012 issue of USA Today, found that the college students/recent graduates believe they will need an average salary of $81,600 to be financially independent, while the parents said their children would need $61,800 to be financially independent.

 

Continuing Education Threatened

The very existence of continuing education in America is being threatened.

Most colleges do not even do civic education, avocational, leisure courses - - those courses that result in an educated public.

So it was poignant to walk in downtown Cleveland and see this 100 year old auditorium "dedicated to social progress, industrial achievement, and civic interest."  I wish we had that kind of business, government and societal leadership today.

Learning Everywhere

Dense neighborhoods replacing suburbs.  Learning was everywhere evident on the buildings in downtown Cleveland, most of them built 100 years ago.

Within a few blocks, the civic auditorium, library, school board, city hall. Here's the Federal Reserve. Even the Federal Reserve had a Learning Center.

Morning Mist from my Canoe

Early morning mist shot while canoeing today.

People Over 50 Don't Get Trains, or Cars

People over age 50 do not understand trains. They also don't understand cars.

So today I'm listening to Garrison Keillor and he's in L.A. announcing the next act, Sara Watkins. Keillor, "Sara drove up from San Diego in her van." 
Watkins, "Actually I took Amtrak." 

On a Friday call-in show on Wisconsin Public Radio, I heralded my top story of the week, California passing the high speed bullet train.

The news guest was pretty positive, but made one classic Over-50 mistake, saying that people will be driving more, causing even more pollution and congestion.    Pollution, yes. Congestion, debatable. Driving more, not at all.  Especially young people, who are driving less and less.

People over 50 just don't get it. The global warming. The deaths. The cost. The stress. The inability to work and drive.