Nine Shift

Driving and the End of the Auto Age

What is really fascinating is that the decline in driving is generational.

Young people are driving 37% fewer miles than previous generations of young people.
This means the End of the Auto Age.  Cars are toast.  Suburbs are toast.

Baby Boomers, age 40-65, are 46% of the population but they constitute 59% of the miles driven. So boomers are clueless that young people are not driving. 

But Boomers are turning 65 by the thousands every day now.  And driving drops after 65.  So Boomers are now contributing to the End of the Auto Age as well.

THIRD FACTOR:  telework.  People who telework drive less, and want to drive less. 

The combination of Gen Y, older people and teleworkers mean that by 2020 the Auto Age will be at its End.

Today's Wisconsin Recall Story

A rally of 10,000-40,000 today at the state capitol kicked off the big Scott Walker recall campaign.
Our NineShift inside source says 105,000 signature have already been collected in just the first 5 days (540,000 needed, so 20% of the way there). Media story here.

Here's funny story from my co-author who was asked to be a volunteer marshal today at the rally.

So there was one woman standing on a ledge who would not come down, no matter what Julie said. The woman said she would be happy to speak with a policeman though. So Julie actually went and got the 3 biggest state patrolmen she could find, and they started walking towards the woman. When the woman saw them she scrambled down and ran off. At which point Julie turned to the biggest state patrolman and said, “Well I guess she didn’t want to speak with you as much as she led me to believe.”  Which got a laugh from the state patrolmen.

Before the rally, the police chief met with the volunteer marshals, so they both worked together.
Ed Shultz of The Ed Show on MSNBC was there.  Here's a photo from our very busy marshal:

Highway Safety and the End of the Auto Age

Highway safety programs might be good, but they do not work.
Highway safety programs have nothing to do with the decline in highway deaths this year.

Despite numerous email requests to four DOT officials in our state last week, none of them could provide any data or evidence that their highway safety programs contributed to the decline in highway deaths this year.

The reality is that a decline in driving accounts for the drop in deaths. You cannot die if you are not on the road.

One official cited their motor cycle safety programs. Apparently a decline motor cycle deaths was an important part in the highway fatality decline.  But motor cycle sales have plummeted in the last few years.  And few of those buyers are young people.  Plus, motor cycle riding declines significantly after age 65, and with older riders the biggest portion of riders, every day thousands of Boomers hit 65 and then their cycling days drop hugely.

Instead, drivers make mistakes.  We make hundreds of decisions and judgments every few minutes.  Some of those are wrong decisions.  Every 61,000 miles, one of those wrong judgments leads to a crash. There's nothing anyone can do about human nature. That's just how it is.

VMT and the End of the Auto Age

Highway deaths are down this year, but not because of what our state DOT says.
Our state Dept of Transportation reported that highway deaths are down this year.
And then stated that highway safety programs were responsible in large part for the decline in deaths. 

The data and evidence clearly suggests that is not the case. Instead, people are driving fewer miles per driver.  VMT is Vehicle Miles Travelled.  VMT has decreased 7 months in a row (this data is national)

And even though VMT in Wisc. grew by 3% from 2000-2010, the population of Wisconsin grew by 6%, meaning once again that people drove fewer miles per person.

You cannot die if you are not driving.  And unfortunately, you can die even if you are driving safely.  Photo: first auto fatality of the year 2011 in Wisc.

Wisconsin Walker Recall Starts

The Wisconsin recall effort against Gov. Scott Walker starts midnight tonight with parties across the state and the electronic filing of the recall papers.

The fight will be covered "live" by Nine Shift.  The fight, to reiterate, is over the 21st century and is a fight between the Tea Party (which wants to go back to the last century) and Generation Y (the generation that is creating the 21st century).  Stay tuned.

Who is The Most Important Person in the World?

Is Angela Merkel of Germany the most important person in the world?

She is key to Europe, and Europe key to the prosperity of the post-industrial world.  It's not about the euro troubles or Greece or Italy.  It's about creating the most productive, prosperous and advanced sector in the world.

The second most important person in the world is Christine Lagarde, the French woman who heads the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

And President Obama comes in third.  How about that?  Two women and an African American the three most important people in the world?  What do you think?