Nine Shift

U.S. Land Use Changes Favor Trains

We were being interviewed by Jim Ostroff, Associate Editor of the Kiplinger Letter, on our pioneering findings about Gen Y driving less.  Ostroff wrote a story on land use changes that support the coming dominance of trains. He writes:

"The federal government’s coming transportation legislation will favor cities and states that adopt zoning policies aimed at reducing traffic congestion -- a philosophical shift that will bring about the most significant land use changes since the creation of the interstate highway system. The new mindset seeks to reverse past planners’ “build it and they will come” mentality -- the kind of thinking that led to urban sprawl and helped create a heavy reliance on motor vehicles for getting around. States and cities will have to rethink zoning to permit more mixed-use projects, including those that combine residential, retail and commercial developments, which for decades have been largely segregated, requiring Americans to hop into their cars to go to work, stores, playgrounds, etc.”

Check out the full story.    Thanks Jim!

Breaking News: Tea Party Merges with Socialists!

Well, actually no.  But this is just as interesting.  Tea Party members are teaming up with really liberal legislators to support the same legislation.

What is happening is that the left vs. right  dichotomy is starting to break down.  And a This Century vs. Last Century dichotomy is growing.  Two examples:

* Tea Partier Ron Paul, congressman from Texas, has joined with liberal liberal Barney Frank of Mass. to support a trillion dollar cut in military spending.  This is very This Century-ish. 

* Tea Parier Rand Paul, from Kentucky, is proposing to push back social security and thus the age of retirement to age 70.  This is also very This Century-ish. 

I support both moves. They both respond to the new economic reality of the 21st Century.

* The issue of trains is another example. Here in Wisconsin former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson was a leader in promoting passenger trains.  Republican Ray LaHood, now Transportation Secretary, also supports expanding passenger trains.  But Republicans running for governor, and just about every other office in this state, oppose trains and support cars. 

On the Democrat side, there is similar divisions.

The real issues are starting to become non-partisan.  Even issues couched in partisan terms today, like health insurance, will be seen as nonpartisan issues in two decades.

Exports Key to Economic Growth

Well, the federal government is right that exports are important, if not key, to economic growth. It's just that they are focused on tangible goods for exports, not intangible goods.  And the U.S. has already lost the manufacturing sector.  Like they want their own daughters and sons to work in the factory (I think not). Why they want your daughter or son to work in a factory is unbelievable.  The knowledge sector will create better jobs with twice the salaries. 

We are beginning our research into exports. You could help us. 

What we know:  Exports are now around 11% of the economy. 

What we don't know:  Do they count intangible exports?  What are the intangible exports of the U.S. right now?  Go find out and tell us!

Robert Reich is all wrong

I like Robert Reich. But he is all wrong.  What is interesting is that American economists, regardless of their political leaning, all have the same perspective.  And British economists, regardless of their political leaning, all have a very different (and correct) perspective on the economy. It's part of the end of liberal vs. conservative and the start of This Century vs. Last Century. Now here why Reich is wrong. It is a primer on how American economists think.

1.Consumers create economic growth.  WRONG.  Business investment creates economic growth.

2.General Motors is an example of a "come back" story.  WRONG.  GM is in decline, part of the decline of the Industrial Age.

3.Future workers will not earn as much as workers in the past.  WRONG.  Knowledge workers will earn twice as much as the average worker today.

4.What we should produce is tangible goods. WRONG. The American economy should produce intangible goods.

He is all wrong, right on down the line.  British economists "get it,"  American economists do not. If you want to know how to turn the economy around, Robert Reich could do it single handedly by raising the correct economic issues of the day.

Does training work?

So a guy loses his job, sees a career counselor who advises him to learn Word and Excel, which he does. But he still cannot get a job, according to this true story in The New York Times.

Does training work?

Yes, training works. But:

1.People have to be trained in cutting edge skills that gives them a competitive edge. My grandmother trained people in how to use a gas stove; people in my town were trained on how to dial a phone without an operator in the early 1950s. Neither of that training today would get anyone a leg-up in the job market. Neither, apparently, does Word or Excel. It would not be a hiring advantage in my organization.

2.Training cannot replace education.  Otherwise, why have education?  Taking high school graduates and training them will not make them competitive with college graduates. Giving them a college degree would make them competitive.

3.Business needs to invest in training.  Business knows better what it needs than the government and career counselors.  That does not mean business should do the training. Community colleges and schools and other nonprofits conduct training better than for-profits, in my experience. But without business paying for it, and directing where to spend training dollars, aimless training becomes jobless training.

4.Of course, training cannot create jobs.  See #3 and our weeklong series on business investment on why we don't have more jobs.

That said, yes training works. The NYT also featured a success story at a LERN member institution, Dakota Tech, where training graduates immediately got jobs in a specialized field with specialized skills.

What do you think of the new national education standards?

Tell us what you think of the new national education standards.

The new standards are based on the concept that all students learn at the same rate and pace, and that all students should have the same skill level in each of a predetermined set of subjects.

It's certainly a concept embraced and practiced in the last century. It certainly has been proven to work preparing students to become factory workers. But it appears to defy everything we know about individuals, learning and the needs of society for specialized knowledge workers with particular strengths that make them marketable.

Or I could just be wrong. Tell us what you think.

Why You Should Not Eat Wild Berries

We interrupt our fascinating coverage of the tragic downfall of America in the 21st century to bring you news of berry picking in the north woods of Wisconsin.  Today is probably the only day of the summer I can pick blueberries, raspberries and blackberries all on the same day.  From here on out, blueberries and raspberries are gone, and just the blackberries are ripening. 

At the same time, need to tell you why you should not eat wild blueberries, raspberries or blackberries. The reason: they are so delicious (especially with a little bear poop still on them) you will find it nigh impossible to go back to store bought berries.  Store bought berries are large and pulpy, bland and tasteless.  It takes me until January to be so desperate for fruit I do store bought.  But the wild berries - - oh, what a wonder!  Now back to our coverage of the disintegration of American dominance......

Teaching Responsibility: No you are not

One of the biggest illusions teachers have is that they are "teaching responsibility."  They actually believe it. There's no evidence for it.

Now my brilliant co-author Julie Coates has uncovered new evidence teachers are not teaching responsibility.

Teachers, you see, punish students for late work. As males submit their work in late in far greater propotion to female students, males get lower grades in every school district and college in the country. Teachers rationalize this by saying that students have to show up on time for work.

Only there is no relationship between on-time performance in school and work. Males, while turning in their homework late, show up for work on time. 

And now, under the leadership of Hilda L. Solis, Secretary of the Department of Labor, there is a new DOL study showing that women are more likely than men to be absent from work even when family and childcare reasons are taken out of the mix.

Check it out here.  The URL is ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/lf/aat46.txt

Teaching responsibility: another Fact Free Zone.

Women in college athletics

A few weeks ago a Connecticut judge ruled that cheerleading is not a sport. The Dallas Cowboy cheerleaders were enraged.

What do you think?
1.Cheerleading is a sport.
2.Cheerleading is not a sport.
3.The whole issue illustrates how broken our system of higher education now is.

I vote for 3 ! 

Taxing the Industrial Age Out of Existence

You know how increases in the cigarette tax helps diminish the number of smokers? The Industrial Age is doing the same thing to itself.  It's fun to watch.

The biggest most recent example is in California, where the state is increasing vehicle license fees, looking at increasing the gas tax, and trying to find other ways to tax drivers to pay for its highways. My favorite is the license plate that displays an advertisement when the car is stalled in traffic. The necessary condition- you have to be stalled in traffic! 

The impact of raising car fees will be the same as increasing the cigarette tax - - people will drive less and own fewer cars.

Here's some other examples of Industrial Age institutions raising the fees on other declining Industrial Age institutions, mutually bringing down both declining Industrial Age institutions even more:

** The U.S. Post Office is raising rates on mailing magazines.  Magazines are in decline, so is the PO.

** Television and newspapers are raising rates on car ads.  Cars in decline, so are newspapers and TV.

** Professional sports teams are raising the rates on broadcasters.  Broadcasters are in decline, do you think professional sports teams are about to decline in revenue as well? 

Got any more examples for us? Share them here.