Nine Shift

Train News: Nail in the coffin of the Industrial Age?

NineShifter Michael Arbow of Saint John, New Brunswick, sends the recent CNN Money story suggesting that General Motors no longer be included in the Dow.   And then Michael asks, "is this the nail in the coffin of the last century?"   Getting close! 

Slow Food: gas, suburbs and saving the earth

Slow food: organic, grown locally.
The growing movement is related not just to the price of gas, but suburbs going in decline, saving the earth, and much more.
Here's a contribution from a NineShifter:

I personally have another prediction for the future - although other folks have thought of it, too.

 

Have you heard of a world-wide movement called Slow Food?  It's all about eating locally grown produce and meats and poultry.

 

With the price of gas skyrocketing which has a tremendous impact on the trucking industry, etc, producers need to look at alternate ways to feed the masses.  Transporting produce, etc. across the country is becoming prohibitively expensive.  "Grow and eat local" needs to be the motto.

 

If the big food producers haven't thought of this already, they had better!

 

I am acquainted with the Slow Food movement, because I know a local gal who is very involved.

 

Recently, the NY Times had an article on more people growing their own produce.

 

However, not everyone can do this - nor can we omnivores have cattle and slaughterhouses in our back yards.

Thus, the big corporations need to get involved.

 

NJ is the

Garden

State

; yet the markets are full of produce from

Florida

and

California

as well as Central and

South America

!  What's up?

 

 

Sandra S. Hockridge

 

Warren

,

NJ

07059

Saving Suburbia, or not

Can suburbia be saved?  The answer is: sorta.

Milwaukee, apparently, is the last major U.S. city that does NOT have light rail being built.
Imagine!  It's only 2008, and already we're talking about the Last city to get light rail ! 

The Milwaukee mayor wants light rail.  The County Executive, Scott Walker, who represents the suburbs around Milwaukee, wants buses.  They can't agree.

NineShift co-author Julie Coates discovered why the big bus-rail disagreement.  Mr. Walker is trying to save suburbia.  Suburban businesses, corporate campuses, malls, tax base, the wealthiest citizens, swimming pools - - you name it, the suburbs got the best life in all the world.  Walker doesn't want to lose that to dense neighborhoods clustered around light rail. 

But no one can save the suburbs.  The only viable response is to build light rail, or heavy rail stations, in "downtown" suburbs (define or determine 'downtown' any way you-they want) and restructure suburbs around dense neighborhoods, just like urban neighborhoods are doing. You'll see lots more attempts to save suburbia, you just won't see any success.

What happens to Suburbia homes?

So, what will happen to houses as the suburbs decline? The forecast is brutal.

We talked with our neighbor Ursula, age 80, local Pierce County historian.  We read this insightful but bleak news story in the NYTimes. 

Here's the answer:  spare parts. 

Yes, your suburban house, where you raised your kids and have loving memories - - will be used for spare parts.   On our trip home from the cabin last week, we passed house-after-house with an SUV or pick up truck in the front yard for sale.  Paul Krugman says houses last longer than SUVs.  But he's wrong.  The rodents start the rot almost immediately.  And burglars steal the pipes and other valuable metals for resale.  Within a few years, apparently, your homestead is falling apart. 

You can sell it, of course.  Or can you?  This year it was pick up trucks in the front yards for sale.  Last year it was snowmobiles.  Suburban houses are likely to continue decline in value.  We heard of a Wisconsin golf course being turned into a natural bird sanctuary.  There's a surplus of golf courses. Obviously a golf course is worth a lot more than trees for birds.  But if no one will buy it, then the golf course (and a suburban house) is worthless. 

A suburb probably can be converted back to farm land in a week  (if you know, tell us).  As an ad for a lousy house in downtown Portland recently noted, "Remember, you're buying the land."   It's all about the land.  Future farmland is our guess. What's your guess?

Stranded in Suburbia: Part II

Paul Krugman's column "Stranded in Suburbia" prompted NineShift to find out what will become of suburban houses as suburbs go into decline.

We tried to find out what happened to farm houses as they were abandoned 100 years ago.  The best source:  Paul Corey's book "Three Square Miles,"  about a family on an 160 acre farm in Iowa between the years 1910-1916.  Here's a great web page summarizing the book.

The family is torn between trying to make a living with a horse and plow on just 160 acres, and moving into town, giving the kids' a college education, and letting them make a better living in the factory.

You can feel the intensity of the uncontrollable dilemma and the inability to make a smooth transition, to do both, to have it both ways.  Of the widow's plans for her children, Corey concludes "All this was beyond her control.  Only time could tell how the plans for the farm would work out. She could but wait - -  could but wait...."

The University of Iowa web page on the book notes that the family farm continued to be just 160 acres right up to 1930.  So we can forecast that it will take the suburbs awhile to decline. 

But they knew in 1908 the family farm was in trouble.  In 1908 President Roosevelt appointed The Country Life Commission to propose solutions to enhance rural life in America.  The Commission proposed greater use of technology  ( ! ! ! ), cooperatives  (never happened)  and also more conveniences for farm wives (like indoor plumbing).

From Three Square Miles we can conclude:
1. It's hopeless.  And the emotional and financial dilemma is extremely painful.
2. It will take awhile for suburbs to decline, maybe 20 years.
3. People and maybe governments will try to "save suburbia."

Photo: The actual Iowa family farm where author Paul Corey was born in 1903.

Stranded in Suburbia

Are you starting to feel stranded in suburbia?
I loved the title of Paul Krugman's recent column Stranded in Suburbia in the NY Times. 
It marks the beginning of the awful unsolvable dilemma of those who choose to remain living in suburbia.

As suburbs decline, when do you move?  How do you get out without losing your investment?
How do you move into the city as city housing continues to rise in price? 

Krugman eloquently outlines the problem.  But he doesn't understand the depth of the dilemma.
He continues to believe one CAN continue to live in the suburbs, claiming:

"Changing the geography of American metropolitan areas will be hard. For one thing, houses last a lot longer than cars. Long after today’s S.U.V.’s have become antique collectors’ items, millions of people will still be living in subdivisions built when gas was $1.50 or less a gallon."

Krugman's column set Nine Shift to find out what happened to farm houses 100 years ago as people abandoned them to move into the suburbs.  Stay tuned.  In the meantime, tell us: are you feeling stranded in the suburbs?

College drop outs to reform education

It's so embarrassing for education and educators.  First, they all use the inventions of the  students they bounced out of college  (podcasts, social networks,  iPod,  Macs, Windows, Blackberry).  Now those same college  drop outs are out to reform education - -  and they will succeed.

Here's an example,  via  NineShift fan Michael Arbow from an article in  The Globe & Mail, about  Canada's leading entrepreneur:, Mike Lazaridis:

Mr. Lazaridis is worried about the future, too, but not of union work. He's worried whether we'll have enough brains. "The number of PhDs the Chinese plan to graduate within the next 10 years is greater than the entire population of Canada," he says. He is a tall, soft-spoken man with a shock of snow-white hair. "We can't beat them on scale. We have to do it by smarts. The only way to get ahead of that tsunami is to invest in quality."

New Economy beating the Old Economy

Michael Arbow, a NineShifter who brought me to New Brunswick to speak earlier this spring, sends this great link and article about the new economy beating the old economy.  He writes: Looks like the 21st century is finally starting to win.

Here's the article from the Globe and Mail,  Canada's leading national newspaper.

This is one of the earliest reportings of the understanding that the old economy is in decline, the new economy on the rise. Thanks Michael for the link and article!

The Skilled Worker Shortage: and why

Interesting article in NY Times on the current skilled labor shortage in Iowa, and predictions for the near future:

"The state provides a small, advance view of what some economists predict will be a broader shortage of skilled workers in the next 20 or 30 years, as tens of millions of baby boomers retire from the workplace, and the economy produces more new jobs than workers. Potential consequences include slower economic growth and competitiveness, as well as higher wages for skilled workers and greater inequality.

Estimates of the national shortage run as high as 14 million skilled workers by 2020, according to widely cited projections by the labor economists Anthony P. Carnevale and Donna M. Desrochers."

Now here's why we have a growing problem of skilled workers: not enough college graduates. This is true of both boys and girls, but particularly of boys, of whom 2 million smart boys are kept out of college each year.  For more on our work on this issue, see https://www.ScientistShortage.com

Employers more likely to send workers home now

From NineShifter Jeff Kart in Michigan, an article in Grist:
"Employers across the country are offering workers the option to telecommute or work a four-day week to help cut down on fuel costs. Compressed work weeks are particularly attractive to employees who work in places without reliable mass transit -- especially since a 10-hour day can mean coming in early and leaving late enough to avoid rush hour traffic. As an added bonus, offices find that fewer employees on site means lessened energy costs. And allowing workers to cut down on commuting can also increase morale."

We have said that around 2010 employers will realize that telecommuters are more productive than office workers, and the current gas crisis is certainly helping move in that direction.  Thanks Jeff!