A BBC reporter asked us recently to suggest someone who could speak on the scientist shortage. We responded, but also thought we would outline the answer. 
A full report will come later this summer with documentation, and be posted at www.SmartBoysBadGrades.com. But here's the summary.
There has been much publicity about a scientist shortage in both the United Kingdom and the United States. If one Googles the keywords “scientist shortage” there is a plethora of articles, research, concern and public statements.
Whether there is an actual scientist shortage is a matter of debate. However, there does not seem to be a surplus of scientists. No references could be found that argue there is a surfeit or oversupply of scientists.
Here we provide the
answer as to why there are not more new and young scientists in both
countries.
The answer is that there are not enough boys in the pipeline. That is, there are not enough smart boys entering and graduating from higher education at the undergraduate level to provide a sufficient number of new scientists and eliminate the concern about a scientist shortage.
A “smart boy” is one who tests at or above the level needed to enter a four year college or university. There are 2 million smart boys missing from higher education in the United States every year. Over the course of a decade, that means a shortage of around 5 million college graduates. In the United Kingdom, 47,000 fewer boys than girls now apply to get into higher education each year.
This means that around one-third of the college eligible males are not graduating from higher education. The sciences simply cannot produce enough new scientists given that one-third of the male candidates are not even eligible.
In both countries,
the decline of smart boys entering and graduating from higher education began
around 1980, and has consistently gotten worse.
Other reasons have
been proposed. All may, or may not, contribute to the problem. None of the
reasons are sufficient to explain the phenomenon. None of the other proposed solutions can
overcome a shortage of millions of smart candidates for future occupations in
science.
Thus there needs to
be more male undergraduates from higher education to meet the perceived or real
demand for scientists. We do not need to argue that young men have a greater
proclivity towards science than young women. The data shows that even if all of the young
women who want to become scientists do so, there is still a serious
shortage.
The solution is to admit more smart boys to college and university. Elsewhere we have documented how this can be accomplished without additional cost or delay.
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