Is America in decline?

All the world wants to know.
NineShift position: too early to tell. 

But New York Times columnist David Brooks says NO. He says:
* Americans remain the most productive.
* US R&D accounts for 40% of the world's R&D spending.
* US economy still 30% of world GDP.
* There's no shortage of scientists and engineers. The evidence counterdicts the vastly overblown worries.
* We do an outstanding job of training people from ages 18 to 65. (exact quote)
* US is second to none in innovation.

He concludes, "American's problem over the next 50 years will NOT be wrestling with decline."
What are your thoughts?

Comments

[Erik Holden]

I agree with the NineShift position, that it is too early to tell. A few comments on Mr. Brooks points; as far as the US being 2nd to none in innovation, how exactly do you measure levels of innovation? If you use a simple metric like patent applications by country of origin, we are 2nd to Japan.

Mr. Brooks points out that there is no shortage of scientists and engineers. He is half right. There are plenty of scientists and engineers, but there are also many areas which are experiencing shortages of scientists and engineers. One example being fields associated with missile technology.

Mr. Brooks other statements regarding the size of the US economy. levels of R&D, etc.. don't mean anything. What he should have included was the percentage of increase (or decrease) these measurements have experienced over a set period of time.

I'd argue that the US has been in decline since 2000, but call me an optimist, I'm confident there will be an upward trend coinciding with the next presidential election. (sorry, couldn't resist)