Nine Shift

Cars versus Trains update

The latest in the Cars versus Trains battle for our transportation time and dime:

* "Carmakers worldwide have been suffering amid slowing global growth, high raw material costs and fierce competition."  This could be an early sign of the long term decline of the car (we can only hope)

* In Chicago, trains are starting to help clog traffic.  And $240 million in new funds "won't end its traffic nightmares," says a recent AP article.  Each day about 1,200 trains pass through Chicago, and apparently make a lot of cars stop and watch.  Rail traffic is predicted to double over the next 20 years, they say.  (We say more than double - try 1,000%)

* BTW, if you ever are driving on Chicago toll ways, notice those restaurants stretching across the highway. In 1960s when they were built, we actually sat in them and watched traffic. Traffic was pretty exciting back then....

* Finally, and I know you're interested in how many light rail systems I've ridden, I get to add St. Louis to my light-rail adventures.  St. Louis gets an "A" rating from me.  Did a seminar there this month, and 25% of the participants took light rail instead of driving (well, ah, o.k. 3 out of 12, but it's Still 25%). What's your thoughts on Cars vs. Trains? Driving more, less....?

The 'Axe Jeeves' issue

About six months ago we were out dining with our son Willie and Julie wondering about some question, and Willie joked, "Why don't you ask Jeeves?"  By then, Ask Jeeves had lost all credibility. More recently Ask Jeeves was "retired." 

Which brings us back to that all-important 21st century question, "How's your algorithm doing?" (first posed by BBC Global Business reporter Peter Day about the ultimate-algorithm known as Google).

Netflix, the online movie rental business, has been jumping all over old stodgey Blockbuster.
Then Netflix invented a "fairness algorithm," so normal customers would not get worse service because of frequent-viewer netflix-nuts who check out a movie every day. The fairness algorithm, it turns out, isn't so popular with some people, so a little public relations skirmish over it right now.

Either way, your algorithm is a critical component of doing business. If you don't have an algorithm, go get one.  They're good for business. Where do you rent movies, and why?

Can economic democracy be far away

Is the Internet changing capitalism, giving a more fair advantage to small business?

In the music industry, it seems that way.
The New York Times recently reported:

"Even as the recording industry staggers through another year of declining sales over all, there are new signs that a democratization of music made possible by the Internet is shifting the industry's balance of power.

Exploiting online message boards, music blogs and social networks, independent music companies are making big advances at the expense of the four global music conglomerates, whose established business model of blockbuster hits promoted through radio airplay now looks increasingly outdated."

(photo of family friend Brownie Ryan, who sometimes plays with our son Willie)

What do you think? Does the Internet now give small business, even individual entrepreneurs, a better chance to compete with the big corporation? Give us your thoughts : : :

One downside of the new century

I don't normally like to talk about the downsides of the 21st century:
1) Because we don't really know yet what the downsides are;
2) Because overall life is getting better, and that is a far more do-able scenario for all of us.

However, at the turn of the 20th century, white people turned the clock backward in giving African Americans legal and economic equality in this country. It took half a century to start moving forward again.

Am wondering if we are doing the same thing with Muslims in this century. The parallel "might" be that both groups possessed the resources of the previous century, and thus were/are blamed if unconsciously for the ambiguity and uncertainty of the new era.  Your thoughts on this? Help me out (like you usually do here).

Is America in decline?

All the world wants to know.
NineShift position: too early to tell. 

But New York Times columnist David Brooks says NO. He says:
* Americans remain the most productive.
* US R&D accounts for 40% of the world's R&D spending.
* US economy still 30% of world GDP.
* There's no shortage of scientists and engineers. The evidence counterdicts the vastly overblown worries.
* We do an outstanding job of training people from ages 18 to 65. (exact quote)
* US is second to none in innovation.

He concludes, "American's problem over the next 50 years will NOT be wrestling with decline."
What are your thoughts?

A startling answer to the pension crisis

Fascinating conversation with Ronald R. Sternal, Managing Director for NWQ, a pension investment management company.

We have commented on the looming crisis not only with autoworker retirement funds but with promised pensions for baby boomer teachers and faculty. There's a bigger problem, says Mr. Sternal, and that is when the rest of the population finds out its meager saving in a 401k plan won't cover their retirement years. It's worse than we thought!

His solution is startling. Go back to defined benefits, the old way of paying for retirement. Only this time design the plans more reasonably. Intriguing. (photo of my grandparents in 1959. They lived happily-ever-after.) Your thoughts on this idea?

Latest NineShift speaking

Did two NineShift presentations for senior executives in the federal government as part of the Federal Executive Institute program this week.  Today Julie and I fly to London for two NineShift engagements, a conference keynote in East Sussex and an open-to-the-public evening presentation at CityLit, the largest adult continuing education centre in London. If you'd like a NineShift keynote for your next conference, email draves@lern.org or see NineShift.com

Do you know where your great-grandfather is?

My great-grandfather, William A. Draves I, died this week 100 years ago.
He came to America at age 21 from Germany. He was "in" on the beginning of the Industrial Age, starting several factories in Milwaukee. He was a co-founder of a manufacturing company that eventually became a Fortune 500 at one time. Yet he drove a horse and buggy (only a few cars existed).

By coincidence, I was born 100 years after him. My son, William A. Draves V, was born 100 years after my grandfather, William A. Draves II. WADV and WADII are/were both 20 in '06. By reading my grandfather's diary from 1906, I understood he behaved exactly like my son does today, both into technology and part of a generation creating a new century.

(picture of my grandfather as a young man)
Native Americans honor their ancestors, and now I know why. I have learned much from them about the 21st century. I am grateful to them. Do you know where your great-grandfather is?

Add your data and experience

Add your evidence and experience about why smart boys get bad grades.
Help build our research base. Make a comment here.

Why should you care about the boys

Top reasons why you should care that 2 million smart boys are not in college right now:

1. Your retirement.
   No, your money is not waiting for you. Your retirement is dependent on a good economy in the future (growing stock market, healthy currency, low inflation, good tax revenue). Smart boys working at McDonald's for $5 an hour can't maintain a good economy. College educated smart boys get high paying knowledge jobs that create prosperity.

2. Society falling behind.
   With fewer students going into the sciences, society falls behind China and other science-producing countries.
   You know why few students are going into computer science, engineering, mathematics at the graduate level?  Boys are neurologically oriented towards these subjects. If they can't get into undergraduate college, there's no boys left for graduate school.

3. Your daughter wants to marry one.
  All the studies show young women still prefer marrying someone who earns more than they do, and can support a family so women have the financial choice of raising a family. Gender equity is a win-win for girls too.

4. Changes in education.
  We're not done yet. Understanding how genders differ is just the start to getting rid of the factory model of education. In this century, every individual is unique, and needs (and should get) individual help with learning based on her or his own learning style. (photo is of Doug Anglin, who is suing his high school for gender bias in grading)

5. Your retirement!
   Let your local school and/or college know.  Tell parents of boys to file a complaint with your state department of education.  Tell parents and teachers to visit SmartBoysBadGrades.com.