Nine Shift

How do 5 year-olds know this?

More on the evolving intangible economy.

Children are switching from tangible toys to intangible toys, and at an earlier age, according to a recent New York Times story, "More Gloom on the Island of Lost Toy Makers," by Constance L. Hays (Feb. 23, 2005).

Adding to the industry's problems, children are losing interest in toys earlier, their attention seized by video games, cable TV and the Internet, in a phenomenon known to the trade as "kagoy," which stands for "kids are getting older, younger." What only a few years ago nicely held an 8-year-old's attention - action figures, for example - now is considered marketable only to 3-, 4- and 5-year-olds, said Neil Friedman, the president of Fisher-Price Brands, a division of Mattel. "You're not going to change it," he added.

All this is part of the evolving transition in post-industrial countries to an intangible economy (See our post, "Intangibles Key to Our Economic Future," Feb. 10, 2005).  The transition is being led, as usual, by kids.  What an amazing wondrous occurrence, that young children would somehow 'know' to switch from a tangible toy truck to an intangible toy truck. My only question, "How do 5 year-olds know this?"

Where the jobs are

Big story on the cover of USA Today last week tracking three unemployed workers, and what's happening with (to) them.

Across the water, in a completely related story, a report says some 44% of British companies now say they can't find people to hire for their highly skilled positions.  This is up from 19% about ten years ago, so a huge jump.

The job story looks like an hourglass.  At the top, you have all the jobs, all high-skill work. And not enough people to fill them.  At the bottom of the hourglass, you have another huge bubble. This one has all the people. But the people don't have the right skills. And there are fewer and fewer unskilled jobs for them.

The boys came around our house last week looking for work.  We've got plenty of work, but it's all higher level "thinking" work.  Not much else available right now....just a down-home illustration of the problem.

Heard our BBC interview

Aidan Mann writes here in the Weblog:

"Just heard your interview on the bbc which I listen to and watch on digital freeview television. BBC digital radio stations accessible on my tv have pop up windows that rotate a variety of  information. Not to the extent to which you describe but I think that expansion will not be far off. These pop ups you describe are also available to a limited degree on the digital tv stations which give program info and display comments texted or emailed in to live shows."

Thanks for your comment Aidan.

Latest News: All Good!

Latest News, and it's all good.

1. CONGRATULATIONS KYOTO ACCORDS.
   The new environmental standards went into effect last week. Lots of nations participating. They will get/convince the U.S. to participate at some point.  U.S. businesses will soon have to adopt the standards if they want international sales.

2. PHILLY GOES WIRELESS.
   Well, this is big. And good news for those hoping America won't fall behind in the 21st century. The mayor of Philadelphia has proposed a huge 135 square mile area of the city be wireless, with hundreds of hot spots from the lamp-posts.  Yes. Do it.

3. ANOTHER LIGHT RAIL LINE FOR LONDON.
   Back to the U.K. where things seem to move ahead faster.

4. DOWNTOWN REAL ESTATE PRICES RISE.
   Sure indication that more people want to move downtown.

BBC Interviews Nine Shift

BBC Global Business reporter Peter Day interviews Julie Coates and myself.

The program aired worldwide on radio on Friday.
It is available online only until Thursday, Feb. 16.

Click here to listen.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmes/global_business.shtml

PS: Thanks for all the emails from listeners.

Hershey was sweet

Thanks to Mary Anne Varacalli and Bob McNeil for bringing us to keynote a statewide education conference of 500 people in Hershey, Pennsylvania, yesterday.

After the Nine Shift keynote people rushed the stage and we sold about four dozen books in just 15 minutes.

Big stock market decline coming

One of those little coincidences we discovered in writing Nine Shift is that the stock market has followed the same direction and slope as it did before and after the turn of the century 100 years ago.  Keeping in mind that they celebrated the new century on Jan. 1, 1901, not Jan. 1, 2000, as we did.

The market rose in 2004 (as we predicted), just like it did 100 years ago. If the history continues:
- the market will end 2005 about the same as it started, a little up or down but not much different.
- a huge decline will occur in 2006.

There are plenty of causes for a big stock market decline:
* All time high trade deficits
* Decline of the dollar
* Highest federal budget deficit ever
* Credit card debt continues to soar
* A natural disaster in Japan (the economist suggesting this one says that the Japanese would take their money out of the U.S. to rebuild their infrastructure).
* The housing bubble bursts.

The last one is real interesting. One economist calls U.S. home mortgages a "huge ATM machine" for consumers.  So, if your home's value is suddenly cut in half, could you:

- Sell it for less money than your outstanding mortgage?
- Continue to pay the mortgage?
- Pay a higher monthly payment if interest rates go up, or your variable rate soars?

The reason we suggest the Dow Jones Average is behaving like it did 100 years ago is that the Internet is changing our economy today in the same way, with the same repercussions, as the auto changed the economy 100 years ago.  In which case

Stay tuned. The Panic of 1907 is coming again. 

Big step forward for telecommuting

Finally some good news on the telework scene.

According to a Marketplace report today the federal government announced that some federal agencies will get fined up to $5 million for refusing to implement telecommuting among agency employees. Yeah! 

The story says 90% of federal employees are interested in telework. If you ever driven around Washington DC you know why.

Now we're getting somewhere.

It's great living in the future

There are no more futurists.

My favorite futurist is Richard Thieme of Milwaukee. He's the one who said, "I'm not a futurist. I only describe the present to the 98% of people who aren't there yet."   On the radio last week Richard never talked about the future, only the present. He talked about "liquid boundaries," hackers, life on other planets, but not the future.

And last month the Pew Foundation came out with its study on "The Future of the Internet." What a bland, predictable document. No news there.  Some 58% of futurists predict online learning will grow (duh!, and that's news?).   

Society is changing so fast, and it is hard to predict next week, much less next decade, that futurism is all but dead.  The future is here, and it is much much more exciting than any/all of the predictions.

A few years ago I wanted a father-son bonding experience with my 15 year old. I wanted a 3 day canoe trip. Then I thought about what he would want. He would want a 3 day canoe trip- - with someone else's dad - - not with your own dad.  What he would want is a visit to Comdex, the world's largest computer/future/techno-gizmo conference.  So I asked Tom and his son Landon to go with us. We printed up some fake ID cards for the kids since they were underage, and there we were.....

I remember the two boys walking through the high tech exhibits.
One says: "Isn't it great living in the future."
Other says:  "Yeah, too bad there isn't any oxygen."
First one replies, "Only the mutants can go outside."

The boys understand the 21st century won't be perfect.
But they also know they are living in the future, and it is grand.